Canada: Barley supply up 17% in 2019-20

For 2019-20, total supply of barley in Canada increased by 17% from 2018-19 to 11.285 mln tonnes due to higher production and despite historically low carry-in stocks, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its March report.

Domestic use is expected to increase significantly, due to higher feed use, the analysts said.

Exports are expected to increase slightly (to 3.15 mln tonnes) due to higher exports of barley products.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply from last year (to 1.7 mln tonnes) due to higher supply.

The average price of feed barley is expected to be lower than 2018-19, due to increased supply in Canada, the US and around the world.

In the US, barley production increased by 12%, however total supply increased by only 6%, due to a decline in carry-in stocks according to the USDA. Imports are expected to increase by more than half of the level of last year. Total use is expected to increase by 2% and carry-out stocks are expected to increase by 12%. The average farm price of barley in the US is expected to rise by US$0.03/bushel (bu) to US$4.65/bu from last year.

World barley production and supply in 2019-20 increased to its highest level in the recent two decades. Barley production increased in the major exporting countries, including the EU, Russia, Ukraine and Australia. World trade is expected to rise due to higher supply and forecasts for increased imports from Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco. Total consumption is anticipated to grow. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase from 2018-19.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to decrease to 2.9 mln tonnes due to the sharp increase in carry-in stocks and expectations for lower prices. Barley prices in 2019-20 have decreased from last year but are still good relative to prices in the past few years, which will limit the decline in area seeded.

Production is forecast to decrease by 8% from last year (to 9.52 mln tonnes), using the five-year (2015-16 to 2019-20) average for area harvested and yields.

Supply is forecast to be similar to 2019-20 (at 11.26 mln tonnes).

Domestic use is anticipated to decrease slightly on a marginal decline in feed use (to 6.31 mln tonnes).

Exports are expected to be stable at 3.15 mln tonnes. As a result, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise slightly from 2019-20.

The average price of feed barley is expected to drop from 2019-20 due to higher supplies in Canada and the world, as well as lower corn prices in the US.

US barley production is forecast by the USDA to decrease by 3% due to lower area seeded/harvested and lower average yields. However, supply is expected to increase by 4% due to the continuous increase in carry-in stocks and imports. Total use is expected to increase by 6%, while carry-out stocks are forecast to be unchanged. The average farm price of barley in the US is expected to drop by US$0.35/bu to US$4.30/bu from 2019-20.

At the world level, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts that the barley supply, consumption and carry-out stocks will increase in 2020-21. This is expected to pressure world barley prices.

20 March, 2020