Canada: Total supply of barley up 17% in 2019-20

For 2019-20, the total supply of barley in Canada increased by 17% from 2018-19 to 11.285 mln tonnes due to higher production despite historically low carry-in stocks, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its May report.

Domestic use is expected to increase by 18% to 6.785 mln tonnes, largely due to higher feed use.

Total exports are expected to decrease to 2.8 mln tonnes on lower exports of feed barley to China despite higher exports of barley malt.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply from last year (to 1.7 mln tonnes) largely due to the significant increase in supply.

Barley prices for the crop-year to-date in the Prairie provinces declined from a year ago but remain strong. For the entire crop year, the feed barley price at Lethbridge feedlots is expected to be 14% lower than last year, due to increased barley supplies in Canada and around the world.

Since 2014-15, China has been the largest export market for Canadian barley, taking more than half of Canadian barley grain exports. For 2019-20 to March, exports to China decreased by 8%
particularly due to the declined exports in February and March.

The US is the second largest market for Canadian barley grain and barley malt. Exports to the US increased by 28% for barley grains and 7% for malt, although the import pace for malt slowed down in March. Japan is another important importer for Canadian barley grains and barley malt.

Exports of barley grain to Japan decreased by 17% and increased by 8% for malt.

World barley production and supply in 2019-20 increased to its highest level in the recent two decades. Barley production increased in the major exporting countries, including the EU, Russia,
Ukraine and Australia. World trade volume is expected to be similar to last year despite expanded
supplies, as the major exporters are expected to import more corn because of lower prices for corn. Total consumption is anticipated to grow. Carry-out stocks are expected to be higher than the previous year.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to barley in Canada is expected to decrease by 2%, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said.

Production is forecast to decrease by 7% from last year (to 9.6 mln tonnes), using the five-year (2015-16 to 2019-20) averages for yield and area harvested.

Supplies are forecast to be slightly higher than for 2019-20 (at 11.345 mln tonnes), which will encourage exports.

Domestic use and carry-out stocks are expected to be similar to 2019-20.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to drop from 2019-20 due to increased
domestic supplies. In addition, large corn supplies around the world will restrict feed grain prices.
World barley production for 2020-21 is expected to fall slightly but total supplies are expected to be ample due to higher carry-in stocks, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Total use is anticipated to rise but will be limited by large corn supplies. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase. World trade volume for barley is expected to reduce as cheap corn will replace some feed barley.

23 May, 2020