Canada: Barley supply up 17% in 2019-20

For 2019-20, the total supply of barley in Canada increased by 17% from 2018-19 (to 11.295 mln tonnes) due to higher production (10.383 mln tonnes vs 8.38 mln) despite historically low carry-in stocks, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their July report.

Total domestic use is expected to increase by 20% to 6.895 mln tonnes, largely due to strong feed use.

Exports for the first ten months of the crop year fell by 15% and 6% for barley grains and malt, respectively. Total exports are expected to decrease by 8% to 2.8 mln tonnes based on the current export pace.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply from last year's historic low (to 1.6 mln tonnes).

Increased barley supplies in Canada and around the world have weighed on barley prices. The average feed barley price at Lethbridge feedlots is expected to be 12% lower than last year.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to barley in Canada is marginally higher than the previous crop year and the highest since 2009-10, according to Statistics Canada’s (STC) seeded area survey. A total of 3.04 million hectares (mln ha) were seeded to barley versus the intended area of 2.94 mln ha reported in May acreage report. Most of the increase is in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Barley area in Alberta is the highest since 2013. In Saskatchewan, barley area fell from last year but is still close to the record level since 2010. Manitoba barley area rose from last year and is on par with the five year average.

Using the five-year (2015-16 to 2019-20) averages for yield and area harvested, production is projected to decrease from last year but remain high (at 9.993 mln tonnes).

Combined with high carry-in stocks, supply is forecast to increase to a record level over the past decade (to 11.573 mln tonnes). This is anticipated to encourage exports.

Domestic use is expected to fall due to lower feed use (to 6.773 mln tonnes).

Carry-out stocks are expected to rise to 1.9 mln tonnes due to large supplies.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to drop from 2019-20 due to high domestic and world supplies. In addition, large corn supplies around the world will restrict feed grain prices, the analysts said.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), world barley production for 2020-21 is expected to fall slightly but, due to higher carry-in stocks, total supply is expected to approach a record level, with more than 80% of the increase coming from the world major exporters. World feed use is expected to be virtually unchanged from the previous year, albeit larger supplies, as relatively cheaper corn is anticipated to replace some of the feed barley. The demand for food, seed, and industrial use is forecast to increase marginally. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise, with approximately 30% of the increase coming from the world major exporters.

18 July, 2020