Canada: 2020-21 barley supply reaches ten-year high

For 2020-21, total barley supply in Canada reached a ten-year high at 11.8 million tonnes (Mt), due to good production, despite low carry-in stocks, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its February report.

Statistics Canada (STC) reported that total exports of barley for the August-December 2020 period increased by 45% compared to the same period a year ago, including a 62% rise in raw barley grain exports and a 5% drop in barley product exports.

For the entire crop year, total exports are expected to be 3.6 Mt, 18% higher than last year and the highest level since 2008.

Total domestic use increased by 6% for the August-December 2020 period, largely due to a 6%
rise in the volume of animal feed, waste and dockage, in spite of a drop in food use and industrial
use, according to STC. For the entire crop year, total domestic use is expected to increase by 2%, driven by strong feed use. Industrial use is expected to recover to some degree, but will be lower than in 2018-19.

Carry-out stocks for the entire crop year are expected to be at a record low (at 700 thousand tonnes), due to robust exports and solid domestic feed use, despite a good supply.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to rise by 10% from 2019-20 to C$255/t as a result of strong demand for exports and domestic use, as well as supportive corn prices.

World barley demand for the current crop year was revised up by almost 1.0 Mt in the USDA’s
February update of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. This
upward revision mainly reflected a 1.3 Mt increase in the estimate of China’s consumption, which led to the same amount of increase in China’s imports. Compared with last year, world demand is expected to expand more than 3.0 Mt. Along with a smaller expansion in production, world carry-out stocks are expected to drop slightly, instead of rising as reported in the January update.

For 2021-22, the area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to increase by 4% to 3.2 million hectares (Mha), as a result of good prices and historically low carry-in stocks. Harvest area is projected to be up by 1% and yields to be down by 3%, using the previous five-year averages, which leads to a 1% decrease in the production forecast (10.615 Mt).

Supply is forecast to drop by 3% from the previous year to 11.4 Mt, but still reach the second highest level since 2010. Domestic use is anticipated to drop on lower feed use.

Exports are expected to be lower than the level of the previous year, but still strong, as purchases by Canada’s major barley importers are anticipated to remain strong. In addition, an abundant domestic supply is also supportive for exports.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise on ample supply and reduced exports and domestic use.

The average price of feed barley for 2021-22 is forecast to decrease slightly on forecasts for increased carry-out stocks, as a result of lower demand.

18 February, 2021