Canada: Barley exports forecast for 2020-21 up by 50 thousand tonnes from last month

For 2020-21, the forecast for total Canadian barley exports (raw barley grain and grain equivalent of malt) is pegged at 3.75 million tonnes (Mt), up by 50 thousand tonnes (Kt) from last month, based on the stable and robust export of raw barley grain, offsetting slower exports of barley malt. Total exports are expected to be 23% higher than last year, the highest since 2007-08, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their April report.

Statistics Canada (STC) reported that exports of raw barley grain for the first seven months of the crop year increased by 68%, largely due to strong demand from China, although exports to the US and Japan fell. Exports of barley products decreased by 10%, largely due to weakening of demand from the US and Japan, although exports to Mexico, South Korea and Colombia increased.

Imports of barley are expected to increase sharply from last year to 180 Kt, as strong exports and
domestic feed consumption have tightened domestic barley supply and, therefore, led barley imports to surge. Most of the increase in imported barley was shipped from the US to Alberta.

Canada’s total domestic barley use is projected to increase by 5% to 7.627 Mt, driven by strong feed consumption. Industrial use is expected to decrease slightly.

Carry-out stocks are projected to decline to 0.5 Mt, a record low.

During the past four weeks, feed barley prices in Lethbridge have been strong, mostly above C$300/t, and over C$310/t at times. The average price for the entire crop year is expected to rise by 16% from 2019-20 to C$270/t, second only to the record high of C$279/t in 2012-13.

Worldwide, demand for barley has been strong, driven by continuing robust demand from China. In the April projections, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised up 2020-21 world barley production by 520 Kt, which was more than offset by the forecast increase in world demand. The 2020-21 world barley carry-out stocks were revised up by more than 1.8 Mt, mainly backed by upward revisions in the EU barley carry-out stocks for 2020-21 and the past few years. After the revision, the 2020-21 world carry-out stock projection is slightly above last year’s levels and at a four-year high, but it is still lower than the previous five-year average.

For 2021-22, the area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to increase by 4% from 2020-21 to 3.2 million hectares (Mha), potentially at a 12-year peak.

With projections for harvest area to be up by 4% and yields to be down by 3%, production is forecast to rise by 2% to 10.923 Mt.

Supply is forecast to drop by 3%, but will still be the second highest in twelve years.

Exports are expected to be lower than the previous year, but still strong, as purchases by Canada’s major barley importers are anticipated to remain strong.

Domestic use is anticipated to drop on lower feed use.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise to 700,000 tonnes but still remain tight.

The average price of feed barley for 2021-22 is forecast to decrease, based on anticipation of lower 2021-22 US corn prices and reduced demand.

The USDA released its Prospective Plantings report recently. This report indicates a slightly smaller 2021 barley area in the US, at 2.59 million acres (Mac), versus 2.62 Mac actually seeded in 2020.

Worldwide, the International Grains Council (IGC) projects lower 2021-22 harvested area and
production in the world’s major barley exporters, including the European countries, Russia and
Australia. For Ukraine, the 2021-22 barley area is predicted to drop, but owing to an expected recovery in yields from the previous year, production is projected to increase. In total, world barley production for 2021-22 is predicted to drop by 3% from 2020-21 to 153.6 Mt, based on projections for lower harvested area and yield. However, it would still be 3% higher than the previous five-year average.

19 April, 2021