UK: Latest reports suggest a drawback in UK’s barley planted area

Both the AHDB Planting and Variety Survey (PVS) released 8 July, and Defra census released on August 19, suggest a drawback in UK’s barley planted area. This is driven by spring barley, as the winter barley area has increased.

Winter barley varieties are generally higher yielding, due to the longer growing season, and therefore the drop in barley production will likely be smaller than that in planted area. Although the Defra figures only cover England, on average 72% of total barley by area is grown in England and that increases to 85% for winter barley.

While harvest reports to-date point to winter barley yields being slightly better than average, at 6.9-7.1t/ha vs a five-year average of 6.8t/ha, spring barley yields are based on a small sample of the early harvested crops. While preliminary results are good, sample sizes are still small at this stage in harvest.

Winter barley crop is thus forecast at 2.82 mln tonnes, spring barley at 4.22 mln tonnes, and the total barley production is seen at 7.04 mln tonnes. Although back from 2020 harvest by 13%, it is only 5% behind the 5-year average.

Sales of new-season barley have been strong so far. Looking at corn-returns volumes, we can see that purchased feed barley volumes for July-August delivery (to 12 August) is up 7% from last year. Barley has been at a decent discount to wheat, likely incentivising purchases. At the end of July, the ex-farm barley price was at a £61/t discount to feed wheat, compared to £40/t at the same point last year. Over the last 2 weeks the barley price has crept up, but this is following global grains.

Barley will need to remain competitive. Although industry observers anticipate good inclusion into animal feed rations, an export market will remain key. Global grain markets have seen elevation recently, following the bullish USDA report last week, but have since settled back down. Although this offers support to barley prices, a sizeable crop, and the need to remain competitive into feed markets will keep some pressure prevalent.

19 August, 2021