North America: Barley production forecast down by 5.5 mln tonnes since June

North America’s barley production forecast is lower and currently set at 7.1 mln tonnes for Canada and 2.2 mln tonnes for the US, RMI Analytics said earlier in September.

At the beginning of June, the analysts’ estimates were 11.3 and 3.5 mln tonnes, respectively, for a total crop of 14.8 mln tonnes, whereby the current estimate is a combined 9.3 mln tonnes.

The global implications for a 5.5 mln tonnes reduction in North America’s output is significant and impactful beyond the current crop cycle, the RMI analysts said.

A problematic growing season for Canada in 2021 has been exasperated by rains including some hail damage at the end of August. With much of the crop ripe, the rainfall has not only interrupted harvest, it has raised the potential for chitted or pre-germinated barley in the field. The very early harvested barley will be the best quality with more questions being raised by what remains unharvested. Maltsters and grain companies are actively assessing the impact.

The USA barley harvest is nearly completed and to a degree has avoided the rains.

Imports of barley from Europe and possible Australia are needed by both countries, but the extent of them is being determined, the analysts said.

22 September, 2021