Canada: Barley exports increase significantly in 2020-21

For 2020-21, Canada’s barley exports totaled 4.57 million tonnes (Mt), including 3.82 Mt of exports of barley grain and 0.75 Mt of exports of grain equivalent products. Exports increased significantly from 2019-20, primarily due to a significant increase in barley grain exports to China, although exports to the US and Japan fell, based on Statistics Canada’s (STC) trade data. Canada’s barley exports to China in 2020-21 surged to 3.25 Mt, up from 1.44 Mt in the previous crop year, pushing China’s share of Canadian barley exports to more than 90%, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their September report.

Barley imports for 2020-21 increased to 0.30 Mt, up sharply from 0.06 Mt last year and above 0.26 Mt in 2002-03 when Canadian barley production last suffered from severe drought. This increase was due to strong feed demand in the western provinces, particularly in Alberta, as robust exports exhausted the domestic feed barley supply.

Total domestic use decreased by 8% from last year on a drop of 11% for feed use, though the industrial use rebounded from the previous year’s low.

Carry-out stocks fell sharply from last crop year to 0.71 Mt, the lowest level on record. The
stocks-to-use ratio is pegged at 6%, versus around 19% in normal years.

Canadian barley prices have been supported by strong exports, tight old crop barley stocks, growing worries about new crop barley production and strong prices of other grains. The 2020-21 average feed barley price in Lethbridge area increased to
C$294/t, breaking the record level of C$279/t in 2012-13.

For 2021-22, Canadian producers seeded nearly 3.36 million hectares (Mha) of barley in total, according to STC’s June seeded area survey. This is 10% higher than last year's level and the highest since 2009.

Despite an increase in seeded area, 2021 barley production is projected by STC at 7.14 Mt in its September 14th production report, down 34% and 23%, respectively, from last year and the prior five-year average, as yields in the Prairie provinces have been hit hard by drought and the abandonment rate is expected to be higher than last year.

Nationwide, the 2021 yield is expected to be 38% and 37% lower than in 2020 and the five-year average, respectively.

More of the barley crop in the Prairie provinces will be cut for green feed. The prolonged drought on the Prairies has also resulted in poor pastures and rangelands, and severe hay supply shortages, causing farmers to cut poor quality crops for livestock feed.

Along with record low beginning stocks, total Canadian barley supply for 2021-22 will be severely compromised. As a result, demand will be heavily rationed lower.

The average price of feed barley for 2021-22 is predicted to increase sharply from 2020-21, supported by tight beginning stocks, a pessimistic outlook about new crop production, and stronger prices of other grains.

Globally, the combined 2021 barley production for the world’s major exporting countries was projected by the USDA to decrease from 2020, though productions in Argentina and Ukraine were projected to increase. World barley imports for 2021-2022 were predicted to decline on lower imports for China due to its larger-than anticipated corn production. World feed demand for barley was projected to decrease from last year, partly due to production issues in some of the world major exporting countries and an outlook for recovered corn production worldwide. World ending stocks were projected to decrease to the lowest level.

26 September, 2021