Canada: Barley supply projected sharply down in 2021-22

For 2021-22, Canadian barley supply is projected at 7.81 million tonnes (Mt), down sharply from 2020-21 and a record low level. This is primarily due to production issues during the 2021 growing season in Canada’s Prairie provinces, as well as record low carry-in stocks. As a result of the tight supply, demand for both domestic feed consumption and exports will be sharply lower than last year. Carryout stocks are projected at 0.3 Mt, a record low level, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its January report.

The Lethbridge feed barley price for 2021-22 is forecast to hit a new high of C$420/t, up sharply from the previous record of C$294/t set in 2020-21 and well above the three- and five-year averages. The 2021-22 prices are supported by tight domestic barley supplies, the decline in the availability of other domestic feed grain substitutes, robust demand and stronger prices of other grains.

Worldwide, the 2021-22 barley situation includes lower production, demand, ending stocks and
stocks-to-use ratio, compared to 2020-21.

For 2022-23, Canadian barley supply is projected to increase to a comfortable level, mainly reflecting the expected recovery in production on the Prairies. This is based on the assumption of a return to normal weather conditions and trend yields for the 2022 growing season on the Prairies. Tight old crop supplies, robust demand and high spot prices will prevent the 2022 barley area from shrinking too much, despite strong competition for acres from other crops. Total barley area on the Prairies in 2021 was a twelve-year high and is expected to decrease slightly in 2022, resulting in the national barley area decreasing by only 2% in 2022. With a return to average levels for abandonment and yield, Canadian barley production is expected to increase by 52%.

Domestic feed use and exports are expected to increase significantly from 2021-22, given the tight domestic supply in 2021-22 rationing demand to very low levels. Carry-out stocks for 2022-23 are projected at 1.0 Mt, increasing sharply from that projected for 2021-22 and well above the previous three- and five-year averages.

Based on expectations for a recovery in domestic barley supplies and lower US corn prices for 2022-23, the Lethbridge feed barley price for 2022-23 is forecast at $310/t, considerably lower than the price forecast for 2021-22.

Worldwide, total barley production for 2022-23 is expected to increase from 2021-22, as a result of good prices and expected sharply lower beginning stocks. For the 2022-23 US barley supply and demand situation, the USDA’s November Baseline Projections to 2031 indicate higher acres,
production, imports, supply, total domestic use (notably for food, seed, and industrial use) and ending stocks. The farm price for 2022-23 is projected at US$5.15/bushel, 3% lower than in 2021-22.

22 January, 2022