World barley production in 2005-2006 is expected to decrease to 145 million tonnes from 151 million tonnes in 2004-2005, as lower production in Europe and North America more than offsets higher production in Australia, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) comment from January 14. After two consecutive years of good harvesting, barley production in North Africa is expected to decrease. World barley supplies are projected to remain virtually unchanged from 2004-2005 at 172 million tonnes, as larger carry-in stocks offset lower production. However, world trade is forecast to decrease slightly due mainly to reduced exportable supplies in Europe. Strong import demand for feed barley in the Middle East and North Africa and higher import demand for malting barley in China and, to a lesser degree, in the US are expected to drive world barley prices up. Government water conservative programs in Saudi Arabia are expected to reduce irrigation of locally grown forage crops. This could have the potential of raising Saudi’s barley imports further. World carry-out stocks are expected to drop by 1 million tonnes from 2004-2005.

02 February, 2005