UK: Wet and wild spring expected to spark inflation-busting price rises on beer, barbecue meat, other summer favourites
The UK’s wet and wild spring will spark inflation-busting price rises on summer favourites including beer, barbecue meat, bread, pasta, salads and new potatoes, experts warn.
Vast swathes of farmland – still under water from storms earlier this year – have been hit by more heavy rain this month, devastating crops and leaving many farmers unable to put livestock out to graze.
Food supply experts Lynx Purchasing estimates that there could be price hikes of up to 8 per cent on in-demand produce, as a result of intense rainfall and flooding, dwarfing the headline inflation rate, which fell to just 2.3 per cent in April – down from 3.2 per cent in March and near the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target.
“Many crops, ranging from potatoes, carrots and salad to the wheat grown to make beer, have been delayed or damaged by the heavy rain, which has left large areas of agricultural land waterlogged,” said the report.
It predicts the year-on-year price increase for wheat, used for bread, pasta and pastry, to hit 8 per cent, while the cost of barley, needed by brewers for summertime ales and lagers, will jump by 7 per cent. The wholesale price of potatoes could jump 6 per cent, with onions and peppers up by 6 per cent, and carrots 5 per cent pricier, according to the firm’s latest forecast.
Analysts at the company predict that lamb and beef will this summer soar in cost by 6 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively.
The estimated price hikes are what pubs, restaurants and other food firms are likely to face at a wholesale level, said the company, which will likely be passed on to consumers.
It comes after heavy rain, hail and thunderstorms blighted the Bank Holiday weekend, with the Met Office saying a mix of “sunshine and showers” was expected on Monday.
Last month, analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) found that production of wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape could fall by four million tonnes this year compared to 2023 – a reduction of 17.5 per cent.
A spokesman for Lynx Purchasing said its analysis was based on data, insights and forecasts from food suppliers across the UK, from large national wholesalers to smaller specialists, who in turn work closely with farmers, growers and suppliers in Britain and overseas.
He said: “The estimates are based on the lower crop yields expected due to extended wet weather and the higher costs of relying on imported produce for longer. The NFU (National Farmers’ Union) has warned of ‘substantially reduced output’ from UK farms, but the full picture will not be clear until the various crops are harvested.”
He added: “Some catering suppliers are now imposing ‘force majeure’ price increases on potato supplies and warning that further price increases and shortages should be expected across the full range of fresh produce.
“The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board reports that high rainfall levels over winter took their toll on winter crops in all parts of the UK. The wet weather has also affected livestock, with an impact on feed costs, as well as lower yield due to lack of pasture feeding.”
Lager is now closer to £5 a pint than ever at an average of £4.75, up from £4.54 a year ago, Office for National Statistics data shows, while a packet of four frozen beef burgers now costs £3.56. Most supermarkets have already shrunk potato sacks from 2.5kg to 2kg without any price decrease.
Planting of salad favourites such as onions, peppers and tomatoes will be later than usual in the UK, states Lynx Purchasing’s report. While glasshouse-grown produce will be available, British shoppers are likely to rely on higher-priced imports for longer than usual.
Olive oil, now dubbed “liquid gold”, is soaring in cost, with the average price of one litre of own-label in the UK at £7.38 – 42 per cent higher than a year ago.
The long, hot, dry summer in much of the Mediterranean last year damaged olive trees and caused a poor crop, pushing prices to an all-time high.
Farmers across several English counties where rivers burst their banks earlier this year during Storm Henk are eligible for grants of up to £25,000 under the Government’s Farming Recovery Fund.
The Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs said further support for farmers hit by flooding and exceptional wet weather had been made available as part of the Farming Recovery Fund, with £50 million to cover farms of all sizes across the country.
It added: “The new eligibility criteria opens up the scheme to thousands more farmers who have suffered significant damage to their land as a result of prolonged and extreme wet weather and flooding, and will help support UK food security.”
27 May, 2024
