Russia: Barley exports forecast remains unchanged at 4.3 mln tonnes

On June 14, the Russian Union of Grain Exporters, which began publishing consensus forecasts for this year's grain harvest and exports in 2024/25 MY on May 17, lowered its estimate of wheat exports from Russia in the new season by 14.7% compared to the previous month, to 40 mln tonnes, Interfax reports.

As specified, the estimate of corn exports decreased by 5.7%, to 5 mln tonnes, barley exports remained unchanged at 4.3 mln tonnes. The consensus forecast for total grain exports is 53.5 mln tonnes, down 9.5% from a month ago.

The gross harvest of Russian grain in 2024 is forecast at 125.1 mln tonnes (down 7% from May), including 79.3 mln tonnes of wheat (down 8.6%), 18.6 mln tonnes of barley (down 3.6%), and 14.9 mln tonnes of corn (down 2.6%).

According to Eduard Zernin, the Union's chairman of the board, both harvest and export forecasts continued to decline as the harvesting campaign progressed.

"We count the deviations from the first consensus forecast, as it is important for us to assess the effect of unfavorable natural phenomena - frost and drought - on the harvest," he said.

17 June, 2024