USA: A Morgan Stanley report based on a survey of 1,400 alcoholic beverage drinkers concludes that while beer remains the most popular alcoholic beverage, brewers' market share fell from 59.5 % in its peak year of 1995 to 56.7 % in 2003. Analysts expect beer consumption to grow just 0.5 % over the next five years, while wine consumption is projected to grow 3.5 % annually and liquor consumption is expected to increase 2 % annually.

"Beer (is) likely to continue to lose share to wine and spirits due to health and demographic trends," Morgan Stanley analyst William Pecoriello said in discussing the report, which was published on March 23. Pecoriello also concluded that "slower beer industry growth will likely keep the cost of doing business high." "Spirits have built strong image and share among 21- to 27-year-olds, which bodes well for future growth," he said. And, "wine is the main beneficiary of health and aging trends.

The proprietary survey was conducted in November, Morgan Stanley said, and included only US adults ages 21 to 65 who had consumed alcohol in the past seven days.

In addition to the health and demographic trends, "women are increasingly likely" to drink wines and spirits and have "more-negative views on beer," according to the report.

To combat the gains of wines and spirits, the beer industry has been spending more money on marketing and promotions, including what they call on-premise spending. The survey leads Morgan Stanley to believe that promotional spending won’t be enough. Brewers need to "innovate to reach women and older consumers," the report said, and noted, "this has been difficult in the past."

27 March, 2005