USA: Brewers Association’s midyear survey shows positive signals emerging in industry

US craft breweries have suffered closures and declines, yet nearly half of brewers insist they’re seeing growth, The Drinks Business reported on July 24.

Insights from The Brewers Association’s midyear survey have given the most up-to-date data on the state of the craft beer sector in America. But some of it is quite revealing.

The findings offer a broad perspective on the state of the craft beer industry and, although the research shows that closings are continuing to outpace openings, there are green shoots emerging, even whilst geopolitical tensions between America and Canada are starting to shake up the sector.

Beer is an economic lifeline for millions across America, in fact, as a whole, the US beer industry generates US$471 billion in economic activity annually, according to research from the Beer Institute and the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA). In Ohio alone, craft beer brought in US$1.29 billion in 2024 and is forecast to grow further.

The number of craft breweries operating in June 2025 (9,269) was down 1% from the number operating in June 2024 (9,352). By business type, the smaller distribution-focused microbreweries experienced the largest drop-off at -3%, followed by taprooms at -1%, and brewpubs and regional breweries with no change year-over-year.

According to the results, this decline in the number of breweries is accompanied by a somewhat larger drop in volume produced as well. None of the news looks good, until a closer examination of the scene. For instance, increased demand for premium and innovative flavoured beer have also been forecast to drive sales for US breweries.

Although the Brewers Association estimates craft volume will be down 5% year-over-year compared to 2024, there are a few notable elements of interest. Despite this forecast, the sample in the survey still outperformed this estimate, even though the result represents an adjustment for response bias and triangulation with other supporting data. Essentially, people are feeling more optimistic, especially among the smaller brewery tap venue owners.

Unlike a year ago when there wasn’t much variation between business models, the data has revealed how on-site models in 2025 — such as taprooms and brewpubs — have slightly outperformed distribution models — such as microbreweries and regionals — by 1-2% in the first half of 2025.

According to the BA, there were negligible changes in channel share, without much motion among distributed draught, distributed package, or onsite sales.

Taking a closer look, Scan data tracks with Brewers Association survey results, with Nielsen IQ showing BA-defined craft down 4.1% in volume for the first half of 2025, only marginally better than beer overall (-4.2%).

The data also shows retailer and wholesaler rationalisation, with increased competition for limited shelf space, and consumers spending less all being contributing factors to craft contraction in the off-trade where the majority of beer is sold stateside.

25 July, 2025