2003 crop expectations of barley in North America and Australia.

North America: The barley provinces and states of Canada and the U.S. have experienced unusual weather conditions so far this winter. It has been much too warm until mid January, when the weather changed to strong frost. There is almost no snow on the ground. Especially the Great Plains from the Rockies to Kansas depend very much on winter precipitation, as spring and summer rainfall is rare. Mississippi navigation is impaired, water level at St. Louis is 3 meters below normal. These extreme conditions are attributed to the El Nino weather pattern, and experts cannot agree, when the negative effects of the present El Nino will weaken or disappear. U.S. barley acreage is forecast to increase substantially, as prices are high and U.S. maltsters and brewers have concluded large contracts with growers following the crop disaster of 2002. Acreage in Canada is expected to be unchanged or lower, there is a lack of quality seed and a preference of farmers for other grains and colza.

Australia: Heat and drought have lasted nine months by now. Temperatures soared above 40 degrees (104 Fahrenheit), there were forest fires all over the country, and livestock numbers have declined sharply because of the lack of feed and water. There is 4-5 months time until winter planting of grains, but very substantial rainfalls will be needed to replenish soil moisture to a level, which make regular crops possible.

11 February, 2003