Australia: Australia expects the best winter crop in decade with significant rise in barley output

The mild spring temperatures and the good rains will produce Australia's third-best winter crop of the past decade despite a dry autumn and the late planting season, according to the nation's chief commodities forecaster, according to the report of the Age on November 30.

The winter crop is forseen to be 37.8 million tonnes, says the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics in its latest Crop Report.The total is 20 % above the 2004-05 harvest and 21 % higher than ABARE's flat September forecast of 31.1 million tonnes.

The only bigger crops of the past 11 years have been the record 43.4 million tonnes in 2003-04 and 39.27 million tonnes in 2001-02. Victoria's crop in 2005-06 is estimated to rise 38 % to 5.39 million tonnes, which is 5 % above ABARE's September forecast.

Among the other states, production will be up by 4 % in NSW, 20 % in Western Australia, 35 % in South Australia and 14 % in Queensland. Barley will be up 31 % to 8.4 million tonnes. Dr Fisher said the big rise in barley production would be due to higher yields as conditions were very favourable when the crop was maturing.

"Barley is the hardier of the broadacre crops and less vulnerable to severe changes in seasonal conditions," he said. "With the late break to the season, an increased area was sown to barley in place of crops such as canola." Barley output is tipped to rise 55 % to 1.7 million tonnes.

30 November, 2005