After the disappearance of restitution brewers become very interested to capture the best possible moment for their purchases or to split the risk by buying parts of their demand at different times. This is very noticeable this year after the steep price increases in September-November of last year. Present prices can still go lower, if there is a perfect combination of positive factors: large malt stocks and good crops. But prices could also turn around fast, if below-average crops are threatening supplies in any of the large barley and malt countries of the world. Crops are not made anywhere yet, and the prospects are particularly uncertain in North America, Australia and Eastern Europe.

One important point is the loss of about 500 thousand tons of Esterel barley due to winterkill, compensated by expected larger crops of spring barley. It should lead to a smaller discount of Esterel malt in comparison to prices of spring barley malt.

30 April, 2003