E-Malt.com News article: 1480

For 2003-04 barley production in Canada is forecast to increase by 68% due to higher expected harvested area and yields. This is partly offset by sharply lower carry-in stocks, and supplies are expected to rise by 43%. The forecast is based on Statistics Canada's June seeded area estimates. Exports of malting barley are expected to increase significantly while feed barley exports remain historically low, although higher than in 2002-03. Lower cattle inventories are expected to reduce 2003-04 feed demand for barley. However, feed use is expected to be higher than 2002-03 as barley displaces imports of US corn in western Canada. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase slightly. Off-Board feed barley prices are expected to decrease sharply. The CWB PRO for No.1 CW Feed barley is $125/t vs the 2002-03 PRO of $158/t. The CWB PRO for Special Select Two Row designated barley is $194/t, vs $241/t in 2002-03, largely due to increased supplies in North America and Australia.

Average world grain and oilseed prices for 2003-04 are expected to decline from the 2002-03 level due to higher US production. Some offsetting price support has been received due to smaller crops in the EU, Eastern Europe, Ukraine and Russia, with the EU recently suspending all export licenses. The major factors to watch are growing conditions in the major importing and exporting regions, Canada/US trade issues, the aggressiveness of the EU export program, exports from Ukraine and Russia, import demand from China and the Canada/US exchange rate.


26 August, 2003