E-Malt.com News article: UK: Beer price could double due to ‘severe’ weather events and global warming - study

Beer could double in price in the UK as a result of 'severe' weather events and global warming, according to a new international study from climate scientists, The Sun reported on April 1.

This price rise would be driven by global shortages of barley, which would have the effect of reducing beer production throughout the globe.

The research, published in the Nature Plants journal, was carried out by scientists from the US, China, and Mexico, as well as from the University of East Anglia in the UK.

They reached their conclusions by modelling the effects of climate change on the global production of barley, which is used to make beer.

They then worked out the impact of a decline in barley production on the supply, price and consumption of beer in 34 international regions.

And for the UK, they found that Brits would see a drop of anything from 0.37 billion to 1.33 billion litres in the amount of beer they drink every year, while they could have to pay double the normal price for a pint.

In the worst-case scenario, the UK would drink 2.34 billion fewer pints a year, while they'd have to pay £7.20 for a pint on average or over £10 in London.

The situation looks even grimmer in other parts of the world, with some countries witnessing even bigger relative drops in consumption.

In Argentina, severe drought and high temperatures would result in a 35% dive in the total amount of beer consumed, while in the US the decline would be a whopping 3.48 billion litres (or about 6.1 billion pints).

And in such European countries as Belgium, the Czech Republic and Germany, the total decline in beer production would be between 27% and 38%.

The researchers note that the problem could be made worse by governments prioritising the production of other foodstuffs over beer.

Research coordinator Professor Dabo Guan said, "if adaptation efforts prioritise necessities, climate change may undermine the availability, stability and access to ‘luxury’ goods to a greater extent than staple foods."

And interestingly, while the study's authors acknowledge that a big drop in beer consumption might be good for the world's health, it could have unforeseen effects on society and the wider economy.

Prof. Guan said, "A sufficient beer supply may help with the stability of entertainment and communication in society ... While the effects on beer may seem modest in comparison to many of the other - some life-threatening - impacts of climate change, there is nonetheless something fundamental in the cross-cultural appreciation of beer."

According to a report published in October by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Earth has already warmed by 1C since pre-Industrial times as a result of man-made climate change.

The report also concluded that global temperatures are on course to warm by 3C by 2100, if nothing further is done by world governments to combat the effects global warming.

And most gloomily of all, its authors gave a 50-50 chance of global temperature rises staying under 1.5C, but only if the world becomes carbon neutral by 2050.


01 April, 2019