E-Malt.com News article: 2307

The EU is currently the only malting barley producing region for which a fairly sound estimate can be made, as harvest is just over 5 months away, HGCA posted on March 8. Strategie Grains estimates that the 2004/05 EU-15 winter barley area could increase by 30,000ha to 4.3M ha while the spring barley area could rise by 70,000ha to 6.3M ha. Spring barley plantings are expected to stay at a high level this year due to the cut in the set-aside rate. For the EU-25 Strategie Grain expects the total barley area to remain stable at 13.5M ha, since the slight increase in the EU-15 barley area is being offset by an area decrease in the new EU member countries.

The 2004/05 EU-15 barley production is currently forecast at 49.8M tonnes (46.5M tonnes in 2003/04).Adding some 8.6M tonnes (8M tonnes) for the 10 accession countries, Strategie Grains estimates the 2004 barley crop for the enlarged EU at 58.4M tonnes. The majority of this rise is due to the higher yielding winter barley (table). For 2004/05, even though the overall EU-15/25 spring planted area is expected to be higher, Strategie Grains forecasts a reduction in the EU (15 and 25) spring malting barley production. This is due to a slightly lower planted area in the key producers of France, Germany and the Czech Republic, and due to a lower yield potential in the UK and the Czech Republic. This has led Strategie Grains to forecast a 34 per cent (37 per cent in 2003/04) proportion of the 2004/05 spring barley crop suitable for malting purposes for the EU-15, while the proportion for the 10 accession countries is projected lower at 19 per cent (21 per cent in 2003/04).

Although some 8.6M tonnes of barley will be added to the EU balance sheet when the 10 accession countries join, the immediate impact of the enlargement on the EU-15 market is likely to be limited. This is due to the fact that the EU already operates a “00” tariff arrangements with the accession countries, so no new trade flows will be created. In the longer term, the implications of enlargement could, however, be more noticeable. This is because the EU is limited by the volume of grain that can be exported with a refund under the WTO agreements.


10 March, 2004