E-Malt.com News article: 2733

Strategie Grains has raised its forecast for the total barley production of the EU-25 in 2004/2005 from 57.3 M tonnes to 58.1 M tonnes (compared to 54.5 M tonnes in 2003/2004). This stems from higher estimates for planted area in the Czech Republic and Poland and improved yield forecasts for Spain and Slovakia, Strategie Grains said. These changes have more than offset a reduction in projected winter barley area in France.

Temperatures throughout April were close to the seasonal average across Europe although precipitation levels across the continent were uneven. Rainfall levels were close to the seasonal norm in southern, eastern and northern Europe, higher than average in the UK and lower than average in some parts of Germany (Rhine Valley and the south) and France (Champagne-Ardenne and the east). The return of wet weather at the end of April/beginning of May alleviated concern over inadequate water supplies in these areas and allowed groundwater reserves to swell.

Nearly 50 M tonnes are forecast to be harvested in the former EU-15 in 2004/2005 (46.5 M tonnes in 2003/2004) and just 8.5 M tonnes (8 M previously) in the new member states. The expected higher output comes despite an overall decrease in the planted barley area. However, increased sowings of higher yielding winter barley is estimated to more than offset the decline in spring barley plantings compared to last year. In general, barley plantings have, like wheat, returned to a more “normal” planting pattern, after last year’s exceptionally high winter kill saw the majority of the damaged area replanted with spring barley.

In Germany, the largest EU barley producer, latest official estimates put the winter barley area at 1.38M ha, some 4 % above last year, while spring barley sowings have returned to 0.6M ha (-18 %). Given the current good crop conditions, an output of more than 12M tonnes sounds reasonable.

French farmers have equally raised winter barley plantings by 4 % according to official statistics and have reduced the spring barley area by 18 %. Strategie Grains estimated winter barley area of 1.096 Mha for 2004/2005 against 1.11 Mha previously forecast and 1.05 Mha last year. In case of French spring barley the area is estimated at 572 thousand ha (down from 574 thousand ha previously and 697 thousand ha in 2003/2004). Total French barley production is provisionally put at 10.96 M tonnes compared to 9.82 M tonnes in 2003/2004.

Spanish barley production is forecast to be about 9.16 M tonnes this year (8.7 Mt in 2003/2004), due to a higher planted area and good crop conditions. However, recent rains have delayed the start of the harvest in the Mediterranean by about 2 weeks. Spanish barley area is now estimated by Strategie Grains at 3.16 Mha, compared to 3.15 Mha previously forecast and versus 3.09 Mha in 2003/2004. Spanish barley yield is now estimated at 2.9 t/ha (versus 2.82 t/ha last year).

In the UK overall barley area is smaller when compared to last year, as both winter and spring plantings are reportedly lower this year. According to the UK December Survey, UK farmers reduced the winter barley area by 7 % last autumn, sowing more winter wheat and winter rapeseed instead. Hence, overall barley output is likely to remain below last year’s 6.4 M tonnes.

A lower barley crop is also expected this year in the Czech Republic, which is with regards to malting barley production the most significant country of the new member states. Czech farmers planted less spring barley (at 0.36M ha), but more winter wheat (0.9M ha) and winter barley (at 0.13M ha) last autumn.


04 June, 2004