E-Malt.com News article: 3378

US Barley prices continue to hold firm despite harvest pressure, Farm & Ranch Guide revealed on September 30. Despite predictions from the USDA's Economic Research Service that the world barley ending stocks will be the largest in six years, the market has been fairly steady.

In its report released on Sept. 14, the Economic Research Service (ERS) increased its predicted ending stocks by 1.8 million tonnes this month to 28.4 million tonnes, the largest in six years.

According to the ERS, the largest increase in barley production is in the Ukraine region, which could see a one million ton increase. Other areas realizing increased barley production figures include the European Union and Belarus. However, barley prospects dropped in Kazakhstan because of drought, and Canada's barley production was reduced by 0.25 million tons because of early frost and delays in maturity.

Domestically, both the production forecasts and estimated farm prices remained unchanged as of Sept. 1. The ERS did say frosts in Canada have raised questions on the potential size of the crop there and that may add some strength to U.S. prices.

The ERS is still estimating U.S. barley production this year at 273 million bushels, which compares to a harvest of 276 million bushels last year. This production figure, when combined with a beginning stocks figure of 120 million bushels and imports of 20 million bushels, gives a 413 million bushel barley supply. Total barley use for this marketing year is estimated at 287 million bushels, leaving a projected carryover of 126 million bushels.

As for prices, the ERS is still projecting the farm price in a range of $2.25 to $2.65 a bushel on a nation-wide basis.

There isn't much in the market place to drive barley prices at this time, according to Marv Zutz, the executive director of the Minnesota Barley Growers Association.

"The malting industry is still processing last year's crop and it could be December or January before they finish up," Zutz said. "Until that time, no new malting barley will be moving to market. And any spot market malting barley will be sold for prices under the contracted levels.

"Regarding feed barley, the prices are probably going to be strained," he continued, "since there could be a fair amount of both feed barley and wheat coming out of Canada because of the early frosts up there. And then we have this large corn crop to consider as well."

Prices at the local elevators reflect the market's firmness. A review of barley prices on smallgrains.org indicated no change in malting barley prices in during the last two weeks. Prices ranged from $1.65 to $1.90 per bushel.

Feed barley prices declined by a nickel in a couple locations, but remained steady at the others. Feed barley prices fell in a narrow range of $1.30 to $1.40 a bushel.


01 October, 2004