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Newsletter Summary

Currency rates
Brewery news
Malt news
Barley news
More news
Theoretical malt prices
Malt Price Evolution
Malting barley prices
Table of the week
Graph of the week
Agenda
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Average market prices Change trend

Friday, 18 February 2005
Crop 2004
2rs Barley €106.5 -0.47%
6rw Barley €100.0 -0.50%
2rs Malt €238.5 -0.21%
6rw Malt €230.5 -0.43%
Crop 2005
2rs Barley €116.5 -0.43%
6rw Barley €104.0 -0.48%
2rs Malt €248.5 -0.20%
6rw Malt €233.5 -0.21%

Note: Just click on the price link and you will be led to our Market Price History.
Average barley market prices are French and are estimated on FOB Creil basis.
Average malt market prices are estimated on FOB Antwerp basis.
The changes are compared to last Newsletter's prices.
Arrows indicate the direction of the change.


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Currency Rates
Base Currency: Euro, EUR
on 18-February-2005

1 EUR = 1.3080 USD
1 EUR = 0.6902 GBP
1 EUR = 1.6061 CAD
1 EUR = 1.6607 AUD
1 EUR = 138.06 JPY
1 EUR = 3.3563 BRL
1 EUR = 36.6109 RUB
1 EUR = 10.8387 CNY
Base Currency: US Dollar
on 18-February-2005

1 USD = 0.7647 EUR
1 USD = 0.5276 GBP
1 USD = 1.2279 CAD
1 USD = 1.2696 AUD
1 USD = 105.57 JPY
1 USD = 2.5660 BRL
1 USD = 27.990 RUB
1 USD = 8.2865 CNY

EUR/USD Chart
Top Industry News
  • Japan: Japan's top three brewers, Asahi Breweries Ltd, Kirin Brewery Co Ltd and Sapporo Holdings Inc, all reported record profits in 2004 and pledged to sustain gains in 2005 ... Click here

  • Mexico: Modelo, Mexico's top brewer, announced on February 18 it expects its fourth-quarter net profit to rise more than 35 %, above analysts' expectations, due in part to one-time tax gains ... Click here

  • Thailand: Thailand's Securities & Exchange Commission has confirmed its intention to allow a major liquor and beer producer, Thai Beverage PCL, to offer shares to the public ... Click here

  • United Kingdom: Drinks group Diageo said volumes of Guinness bounced 2% in the UK during the final six months of 2004 thanks to a major TV advertising campaign and new packaging for its beer cans ... Click here

  • USA: Before its merger with Adolph Coors Co., Molson Inc. paid more than $10 million to some executives and directors through stock options, bonuses and a special shareholder dividend offered to sweeten the deal ... Click here

  • Denmark: Danish beer aficionados are turning their attention towards specially brewed beers while large breweries complain of falling sales. The overall sales of Danish breweries fell by 6.5 percent in 2004 ... Click here

  • Canada: Canadian maltsters and brewers are finding it hard to compete for Canada’s barley, as China's thirst for the grain surges ... Click here

  • Russia is forecast by International Grains Council (IGC) to import 0.63 million tonnes of malt in 2004/05 ... Click here

  • Australia barley production is estimated by Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) to be of 6.5 million tonnes in 2004-05, a 26% decline on last season ... Click here

  • World barley consumption in 2004/05 is forecast by International Grains Council (IGC) at 143.8 million tonnes ... Click here


More News
  • Russia: Russian beer-maker, Krasny Vostok, might sell a stake of its company to a foreign investor, according to a Russian press statement published on February 15. Krasny Vostok is valued ....more info


  • Japan: Kirin Brewery Co., Japan's second-biggest beer maker, posted a record profit for 2004 on Friday and forecast further growth this year thanks to solid performances at its soft drink ...more info


  • Japan: Sapporo Holdings Ltd. said on February 18 it posted a record group pretax profit of 18.01 billion yen in the 2004 business year due mainly to good sales of ....more info


  • USA, Kansas: Beer brought a total economic impact of $974.8 million to Kansas in 2004, according to a study by the Beer Institute and the National Beer Wholesalers Association ...more info


  • USA, Portland: Beer-related businesses bring $2.2 billion to the Oregon economy, according to the National Beer Wholesalers Association and the Beer Institute. The impact from the brewers, wholesalers and retailers ....more info


  • USA, Denver: The NBA is issuing guidelines to limit the size and number of beers sold at games and have teams announce what kind of fan behavior is considered unacceptable ...more info


  • Australia: Foster’s Group Limited announced on February 17 that nothing in the Target’s Statement released on the same day by Southcorp Limited (“Southcorp” or “the Company”) changes Foster’s Group Limited’s ...more info


  • Australia: Southcorp Ltd., Australia's second- biggest winemaker, told investors to reject Foster's Group Ltd.'s A$3.1 billion ($2.4 billion) bid because it doesn't reflect the company's improved profit outlook and potential ....more info


  • New Zealand: Lion Breweries and DB Breweries have signed new rights agreement with The New Zealand Rugby Union (NZRU), NZRU announced on February 16. From 2008, a new pourage agreement ...more info


  • Netherlands: Heineken NV will report a drop in full-year net profit from ordinary operations on Tuesday, February 22, compared with 2003, according to its forecast, as negative currency effects are ....more info


  • USA, Colorado: On February 18 the stocks of Golden-based Molson Coors Brewing, the world's fifth-largest beermaker, slipped 85 cents, to $70.70 ...more info


  • Ukraine: Feed barley prices continue strengthening, UkrAgroConsult commented on February 17. Offer prices reach $133-135/MT FOB ....more info


  • Mexico & USA: Top Mexican brewer Modelo, half owned by U.S.-based Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc., might change its U.S. East Coast importer, Gambrinus. According to analysts that could cost the maker ....more info


  • EU: Polish and French grain producers want to form a coalition to better combat global competition. Gazeta Wyborcza published on February 15 that entrepreneurs from Poland and France involved in ....more info


  • Spain and Portugal: During 2004/2005's grain harvest, Spanish barley production was 10.6 million tonnes. Portugal, with a much lower amount of arable land area ...more info



Brewery News
Japan: Japan's top three brewers, Asahi Breweries Ltd, Kirin Brewery Co Ltd and Sapporo Holdings Inc, all reported record profits in 2004 and pledged to sustain gains in 2005, benefiting from fresh strategies to deal with the continued decline in demand for conventional beer. According to industry data, shipments of conventional beer fell 1.6 % to 306.55 million cases last year, the eighth straight annual decline. One case holds 20 633-milliliter bottles. The same data showed that shipments of 'happoshu' or beer-like low malt alcohol, the second-category product, dropped 8.1 % to 185.25 million cases, the second consecutive year of decline, according to a statement of AFX-ASIA. Asahi Breweries, Japan's largest brewer, said it posted a record net profit of 30.6 billion yen for 2004 and a record operating profit of 101.3 bln yen on revenue of 1.44 trln yen, as the nation's top beer brand Super Dry benefited from the hot weather conditions last year. “Sales of our mainstay Super Dry beer increased for the first time in four years,” said Yoshihiro Goto, senior managing director of Asahi Breweries. At Asahi Breweries, the combined sales of its beer and happoshu fell by 100,000 cases to 204.0 million cases in 2005, but sales of high-margin beer rose 0.2 pct to 150.1 million cases. Sapporo Holdings Inc, Japan's third-largest brewer, posted a record current profit of 18.0 billion yen in 2004, net profit of 4.6 billion yen and operating profit of 23.6 billion yen on revenue of 494.9 billion yen. Because of the continued sluggish sales of conventional beer and weak sales of happoshu, the company launched its Draft One beer-tasting liquor, which falls into the so-called third category. Third-category products are cheaper than beer and happoshu as they are taxed less because they do not use malt, which is subject to high tax. For example, the top-selling drink in that category, Draft One, introduced last February by Sapporo, is made from peas. Brewers began developing third-category products when sales of happoshu started dropping last year after the government raised taxes on that product. Sapporo's shipments of beer fell 5 pct to 40.2 million cases in 2004 and shipments of happoshu dropped 28 pct to 17.75 million cases. But deliveries of Draft One reached 18.15 million cases in 2004, less than 12 months since it was launched. Sapporo Holdings senior managing director Masaru Fukunaga shrugged off the challenge posed by its rivals Asahi and Kirin in the third category product. Both Kirin and Asahi will release their own third category liquors this year. “I believe that the entry of Kirin and Asahi will help expand the market for this (third category product) segment and we will benefit from such an expansion as top-brand holder,” Fukunaga said at a news conference. Kirin Brewery, the second-largest brewer, posted record operating profit of 109.4 billion yen in 2004. Net profit of 49.1 bln yen was the second highest it has achieved and current profit of 106.6 billion yen was also the second best on record. Kirin's revenue rose to 1.65 trillion yen from 1.60 trillion yen in 2003. “We managed to post a record-breaking operating performance, thanks to the strength of our diversified group,” Kirin managing director Kazuhiro Sato told a news conference. Kirin's shipments of its mainstay 'Lagar' brand beers dropped 7.3 pct to 46.9 million cases in 2004, and shipments of 'Tanrei' happoshu declined 1.1 % to 74.7 million cases...more info

Mexico: Modelo, Mexico's top brewer, announced on February 18 it expects its fourth-quarter net profit to rise more than 35 %, above analysts' expectations, due in part to one-time tax gains. Modelo, maker of Corona beer, also said fourth-quarter operating profit, or earnings before interest and tax, should grow more than 12 %, according to Reuters. "Operating margins could expand more than 300 basis points," said the brewer, which is half owned by U.S.-based Anheuser Busch Cos. Inc. Modelo's shares ended 1.03 percent higher at 32.22 pesos on the Mexican bourse on Friday, just below 12-month highs that they touched earlier in the session. Modelo is up more than 5 percent so far this year, but has consistently lagged the gains of the market's main index. Many Mexican companies are benefiting from a recent reduction in the rate of corporate income tax. Analysts hailed the preliminary forecasts from Modelo ahead of formal fourth-quarter results scheduled for Feb. 24. "It is very good news and quite a surprise," said Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Tufic Salem. "The stock has under performed the stock market for the last 12 months." Salem said Credit Suisse First Boston had expected a 9 percent increase in operating profit in the quarter and a 150 basis point expansion for margins. "Cost reductions could explain the difference in our view," Salem said. "We believe that efficiencies, controlled marketing expenses, head count reduction and the first benefits from the changes at its distribution network could be kicking in." Modelo is seen by most analysts as a defensive stock with steady, but undramatic growth under one of the most conservative managements in Mexico. Modelo has around $1.1 billion in cash on its debt-free balance sheet. Putting out guidance publicly for the first time also went down well. "This could help increase trading activity in the stock," said Interacciones analyst Jorge Lagunas. A recent Reuters survey of analysts forecast Modelo would report a 9.5 percent increase in net profit in the fourth quarter from the October-December period in 2003. The survey also forecast a mere 2.5 percent rise in operating profit and a 40-basis point expansion in operating margins.

Thailand: Thailand's Securities & Exchange Commission has confirmed its intention to allow a major liquor and beer producer, Thai Beverage PCL, to offer shares to the public....more info

United Kingdom: Drinks group Diageo said volumes of Guinness bounced 2% in the UK during the final six months of 2004 thanks to a major TV advertising campaign and new packaging for its beer cans. A price hike in April failed to quell the renewed enthusiasm for the stout and helped push UK sales up 6%, while the decline in sales of Guinness in Ireland also slowed. Guinness has struggled to retain the loyalty of drinkers in the face of a barrage of new products in recent years such as alcopops and the growing appeal of wine, UTV posted on February 2005. However, Diageo confirmed that these trends are changing and that brands with a strong consumer appeal such as Smirnoff vodka and Baileys Irish cream were the current success stories. Baileys volumes rose 6% as drinkers stocked up over Christmas when the brand was used by UK retailers to bring more customers through their doors. In contrast, the drop-off in demand for alcopops has been so fast - 18% for ready-to-drink Smirnoff products in six months - that Diageo has slashed the amount it spends on marketing them in half. Details emerged as Diageo reported a 4% hike in sales of its top brands despite tough conditions in Europe caused by higher taxes and regulation. The improvement was driven by a strong performance in North America where Diageo captured a greater share of the markets for spirits, wine and beer and was able to cut costs. Pre-tax profits before exceptional items totalled £1.24 billion - lower than the £1.3 billion a year earlier but in line with market expectations. However, the impact of currency swings on its results was underlined by the fact that turnover would have been £303 million higher than the £4.98 billion reported if exchange rates had been constant in the final six months of 2004. Chief executive Paul Walsh said the company maintained its record of improving profitability and growing sales before accounting for the impact of acquisitions. He said: "We have made a good start to the year and we can maintain our full year guidance of 6% organic operating profit growth." Diageo trades in some 180 countries around the world and makes brands including Baileys, J&B, Jose Cuervo, Captain Morgan, Tanqueray, and Beaulieu Vineyard and Sterling Vineyards wines. It employs 24,000 people globally and 5,000 people in the UK. The company said higher taxes and regulation, health-related legislation and weak economic conditions provided the backdrop for its European performance. Volumes in Ireland fell 3% as the trend for drinkers to stay at home was accelerated by the introduction of a smoking ban in pubs and bars in March. Cool summer weather and promotional activity enabled the company to slow the rate of decline in sales of Guinness in Ireland to 1%, although some analysts were expecting the brand to return to growth in its home market. Retailers and bar owners stocking up on brands ahead of a hike in duties and prices contributed to volumes rising 1% in Spain despite a declining spirits market. In the US, Diageo said volumes were 5% higher than the same period of 2003, outstripping the 2% growth of the overall market.

USA: Before its merger with Adolph Coors Co., Molson Inc. paid more than $10 million to some executives and directors through stock options, bonuses and a special shareholder dividend offered to sweeten the deal, a regulatory filing said....more info

Denmark: Danish beer aficionados are turning their attention towards specially brewed beers while large breweries complain of falling sales. The overall sales of Danish breweries fell by 6.5 percent in 2004....more info

Malt News

Canada: Canadian maltsters and brewers are finding it hard to compete for Canada’s barley, as China's thirst for the grain surges, industry lobbyists said on Thursday, February 17, according to Reuters. Barley is one of Canada's largest crops. Local buyers want to find ways to get a more consistent supply of barley from the Canadian Wheat Board, which has a monopoly on the crop, lobbyists told a conference of barley and wheat farm groups that are staunch opponents of the marketing agency. "Right now, our reputation around the world is not very good," said Phil de Kemp, president of the Malting Industry Association of Canada, which represents the country's C$800 million malting business. Three years of weather problems combined with a move to fewer, larger grain handling facilities have made it hard for the maltsters to get consistent quality, de Kemp said. "The malting industry right now receives average quality at best versus the top quality we saw in the earlier years," de Kemp said. Canadian maltsters will buy an estimated 1.02 million tonnes of Canada's total supplies of 1.72 million tonnes of malting barley in the 2004-05 marketing year, which runs from August to July, according to wheat board figures. But in recent years maltsters in China have emerged as a big buyers, gobbling up 76 %, or 535 million tonnes, of Canada's exports from 460 million tonnes in 2003-2004, the wheat board said. Canada is the world's third-largest malting barley exporter, after Australia and Europe. Farmers don't receive enough incentives and signals to reflect the demand from Canadian maltsters, de Kemp said. Beer companies also want to make sure farmers get better prices from the wheat board so they are assured of supplies, said Luke Harford, director of economics for the Brewers Association of Canada. "When we go to the Canadian Wheat Board, they say, 'You're not our customer,"' Harford told farmers. The Canadian Wheat Board has had good discussions with brewers in recent years, said Bob Cuthbert, the board's senior marketing manager, although he noted the agency contracts with maltsters, who in turn sell malt to the brewers. The agency has worked to improve payment programs and price signals for malting barley, Cuthbert said. But he said the malting industry is facing new competition from plants in Europe, Russia and the United States and declining beer consumption in Japan. "It's really a success story, but they're under a lot of pressure," Cuthbert said. He said the wheat board gives domestic players competitive prices, and noted the newly merged Molson Coors Brewing Co. recently announced it would shut a plant in Memphis in favor of production in Canada. "That kind of counters any argument that (Canadian brewers) are not getting a fair price," Cuthbert said.

Russia is forecast by International Grains Council (IGC) to import 0.63 million tonnes of malt in 2004/05....more info

Barley News

Australia barley production is estimated by Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) to be of 6.5 million tonnes in 2004-05, a 26% decline on last season....more info

World barley consumption in 2004/05 is forecast by International Grains Council (IGC) at 143.8 million tonnes compared to 145.7 million tonnes last year....more info

Theoretical malt prices.


* - 70/30 = 70% Average two Rows Spring and 30% Six Rows Winter
** - 50/50 = 50% Average two Rows Spring and 50% Six Rows Winter

Theoretical malt prices for crop 2005 are available on site www.e-malt.com/MarketPrices

Malt Price Evolution

Malt Market Price Evolution, Crop 2005

Source: E-malt.com

Malting barley prices. French barley prices.
Nominal prices.

nq - Not quoted
Prices for Danish and UK malting barley are available on site www.e-malt.com/MarketPrices

Table of the week
Canada: Barley Supply and Disposition

  2003-2004   2004-2005 f  2005-2006 f 
  Harvested area, '000 ha 4,446  4,050  4,040 
  Yield, tonne/ha  2.77  3.26  3.01 
  Production, '000  metric tonnes 12,328  13,186  12,180 
  Imports, '000 metric tonnes 36  50  30 
  Total Supply, '000 metric tonnes 13,838  15,344  15,910 
  Exports, '000 metric tonnes  2,445  1,850  2,500 
  Food & Industry Use, '000 metric tonnes 298  300  380 
  Feed, Waste, Dockage, '000 metric tonnes 8,574  9,089  9,525 
  Total Domestic Use, '000 metric tonnes 9,286  9,794  10,310 
  Carry-out Stocks, '000 metric tonnes 2,108  3,700  3,100 
  Average Price, CA$/tonne 138.80  100-120  110-130 

Graph of the week

Agenda


February 2005:
Pianeta Birra - Beverage & Co. International Show of Beers, Beverages etc., Italy;
Seminaire Orges brassicoles 2005 à Paris-Bagnolet;
Liqma International Beverage Industry Exhibition, Spain;
Canadian Food and Beverage Show;
GrainWorld 2005. Canada. CWB.;
Beer Business Daily's Second Annual Beer Industry Summit.;

March 2005:
Night of Great thirst, Belgium;
Zythos Beer Festival, Belgium;
Institute and Guild of Brewing Africa Section 10th Convention, South Africa;
China Drinktec China International Exhibition on Beverage, Brewery and Wine Technology;
FOODEX JAPAN 2005 / INTERNATIONAL FOOD & BEVERAGE EXH;
International Food and Drink (IFE), UK;
BLACK SEA GRAIN: A NEW ENVIRONMENT IN UKRAINE AND REGIONAL PROSPECTS FOR GROWTH;
Deltabierfestival, The Netherlands;
Spring Beer Festival "Hops on Equinox", Seattle;
Brew and Beverage Industry - Beer Auction International Trade Fair, Russia;
Siebel Institute Brewing Profitability Workshop;

April 2005:
Helsinki Beer Festival;
Concise Course in Brewing Technology;
World Barley, Malt & Beer Conference 2005;
JOINT LEGISLATIVE CONFERENCE. Washington, D.C., USA;
BEER. Exhibition Pavilion Minsk.;
Craft Brewers Conference & BrewExpo America;
Classic City Brewfest, Athens, GA;
WINES, BEERS AND DRINKS Exhibition for the Beverage Industry. Krasnoyarsk, Russia;
Excursion to West-Flanders;

More events are available on site e-malt.com

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